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Recession Over, But Mendocino County
Needs a New Plan
Despite attempts by some Republicans and conservative news media to talk up the late recession, it is over. The United States is now in an economic up cycle, but off a relatively low base. Keep in mind that a macro up cycle can have numerous areas of micro-economic weakness, just as even during the macro down cycle in 2008-2009 there were some areas of micro strength.
Even during the 2004 to 2007 boom Mendocino County had its problems, masked as they were by the rising auction prices for houses and land. County government was poorly managed. California government, including its school districts (which report directly to the state, not to the county), was poorly managed. And the federal government was poorly managed, spending money on an unnecessary pair of wars and a mostly pointless homeland security bureaucracy while giving away tax cuts to its most astonishingly wealthy citizens.
Unless citizens work closely with elected officials to improve on that barren track record, the renewing economy will simply enable a new round of bad government.
In Mendocino County (and in the public school districts within the county) tax revenues may decline for several more years. While occasionally a house or property might sell at above its former Prop 13 assessed value, most of the houses that are selling today seem to have been bought during the bubble. So when they sell, their accessed value, and revenues to government, will fall. Sales tax revenue should pick up, but it could take a couple of years to get to 2007 levels.
Underfunded pension liabilities of workers have not gone away. The County needs to switch to a more conservative, defined benefit pension system, or better still to a defined contribution system.
That said, citizens should be supportive of county and school system workers. The services they perform for this community are often important and sometimes vital. In return government should be run efficiently: priorities need to be set, and all time paid for by taxpayers should should be for effective work.
When I was a school board member one of the complaints I heard from teachers was that they could not easily afford home ownership or even rentals on their pay. With the cost of homes and rentals way down since 2006, at least that part of the equation should be considered a plus. In fact I know many people, not just government workers, have benefited from the more plentiful and cheaper rents.
While I admire individualism, in the new global economy we need to start working together or we will sink together with only a few exceptions. We need a county economy that produces more value. Listening to supervisor candidate Dan Hamburg, I believe this is possible. We should be able to grow more high-value agricultural and natural wood products. We should be able to add value to the products within the county. We should encourage production oriented businesses that are a good fit (non-polluting, with low water needs) with our naturally beautiful county. Our retail segment could be improved too, allowing us to shop locally and still get fair prices for what we need. I believe there is room for a much larger education economy in the county as well.
These changes will take time. They will take commitment and energy. They will require capital. They will require a workforce achieving higher skill levels. They will require change. Most people have difficulty with change, but now there is an incentive. Change is coming. The choices for the citizens are: change for the better, or change that is slouching towards a new round of misery.
William P. Meyers
